top of page
  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

May Day NBA Action: Betting on Depressed Offense in Orlando

Updated: May 1, 2021

Season-to-date record: 84-76-3, 53%

Improved defense is the norm when the same teams play back-to-backs: Grizzlies Magic u220

We have reported on several occasions that one (likely unintended) consequence of the same teams meeting on consecutive days, a fairly common phenomenon in the 2020-21 NBA schedule as an effort to reduce travel in the age of covid, is a bias in favor of the UNDER in the second game of such sequences (see here or here for examples of our detailing this tendency).

In the small sample of NBA action featuring teams that played each other just a day earlier, the UNDER has delivered an 18% return on investment.

Underlying the success of this system, we hypothesize that exposure gained by both teams in the first meeting translates to improved abilities to counter offensive propensities.

The Grizzlies and Magic mustered a combined 167 points Friday, in what turned out to be an easy win for Memphis. These teams will meet again Saturday (this time in Orlando). History at our disposal, albeit limited, is definitive. Accordingly, we are positioning for another disappointingly low-scoring affair.

Happy betting!!

bottom of page