Season-to-date record: 69-61-2, 53%
Peculiarities of covid-era point to Rockets @ Wolves -5 and u228.5, and Grizzlies @ Jazz -10 (-115) and u228 (-115) Saturday
We have noted on several occasions by now that the baseball-style series the NBA has written into this season's schedule to reduce travel, and presumably risks of transmission, have produced an exploitable bias toward favorites and UNDERS in the second leg of such of back-to-back meetings in set locations.
We cited these tendencies as recently as Thursday to justify plays on a Clippers cover and a disappointingly low scoring affair. The spread would later drop three points on confirmation Kawhi would sit, but L.A. still covered the opening line comfortably, AND held San Antonio to an UNDER-friendly 85 points.
We hypothesize that superior teams (i.e. favorites) are better equipped to use the experience of the prior meeting to implement adjustments that limit the opposition's offense, resulting in higher ATS win rates and UNDER cover rates.
Favorites have delivered a 41% return on investment this season versus their conference from this position (the sample of non-conference action is 0-1...but fret not, as the two indicated games today feature intra-conference play).
When the team laying the chalk did not cover the spread in the prior meeting they are 8-2 ATS in the re-do (but 3-2 off the ATS win is still a VERY strong cover rate).
UNDERs have been essentially equally profitable so far in the latter meeting of NBA next-day rematches.
The UNDER is 6-2 when the first meeting went OVER and 6-3 off an UNDER.
Happy betting!!