Season-to-date record: 67-61-2, 52%
Like Wednesday, expect domination from LA Thursday, but with better defense: Clippers -6 and u221.5
As six point favorites, the Clippers spanked the Spurs by 33 at San Antonio's AT&T Center Wednesday. These same teams will rematch in San Antonio Thursday, illustrating the 'baseball-style' series that has been written into the NBA schedule this year to minimize travel requirements.
Quite curiously, the line for Thursday's replay opened at Clippers -6, exactly where the spread closed for Wednesday's action. Thus, bookmakers are placing NO merit in the blowout loss the Clips handled the Spurs...zero.
We expect the Clippers to cover again Thursday with relative ease, so we are happy to get down on L.A. at the same price as before they just demonstrated their huge talent advantage.
Inline with our pro-Clippers outlook, we note that, although a new phenomenon, ATS results for the second game of the NBA's 'baseball-style' series have been utterly definitive: the favorite has clearly been the play, amassing an other-worldly 41% return on investment so far this season.
We hypothesize that the more talented team (i.e. the favorite) is generally better equipped to translate the experience gained in game 1 into adjustments that limit the opposition's success in the second meeting.
This system is 3-1 ATS when the favorite is coming off a cover in their previous contest.
Separately, the magnitude of the Spurs defeat Wednesday, coupled with a presumed lapse in mental acuity that often ensnares teams on extended home stands, likewise leads us to expect an ATS result Thursday akin to Wednesday's outcome.
Historically, poorer teams on home stands have struggled to bounce back versus the number versus familiar opposition after big losses.
Teams that missed the previous playoffs and that are in the throes of at least three-game home stands have proven strong fades facing their conference after at least 20-point losses.
This system has been good for a 21% ROI since 2004, with only two seasons with sub-50% cover rates, and is 4-2 versus the number this year.
Another bias evident with the implementation of 'baseball-style' series is the tendency for second games to finish UNDER the betting total.
Here too, we expect that exposure gained in game one translates to an improved ability to counter the opposition's offensive propensities.
Bottom line: Unique properties of the accommodation of the NBA schedule to the covid crisis creates opportunities in San Antonio Thursday, as far as we can tell. We are backing the Clippers for the cover, and are pairing that wager with a play on the UNDER.
Happy betting!!