2021-22 NBA Playoffs: Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks
History says Phoenix likely to rebound from game 3 loss: Suns -2.5
Our work highlighted the Dallas Mavericks to cover the first half spread in game 3 of their NBA Playoffs second round matchup with the Phoenix in Suns. Not only did Dallas easily beat the first half number, but Luka Dončić and Jalen Brunson rallied the Mavs to a 94-103 full game victory. Phoenix now leads the series 2-1 heading into game 4 at American Airlines Arena Sunday.
As of the time of this writing, the masses are all over the Suns as slight favorites. 80% of spread bets and 81% of ATS dollars wagered are down on Phoenix.
In the playoffs (in stark contrast to the regular season), extreme herding has historically contained exploitable information for bettors. Accordingly, we expect Phoenix to claim their third win of the series on the road in game 4.
In NBA Playoff action, backing teams with the support of at least 65% of spread tickets and at least 70% of ATS dollars behind them has been good for a 27% return on investment, historically.
Despite the relatively small sample size, statistical inference implies this observed result is significant at better than the 95% confidence level. Further, this angle has suffered only two losing season since 2015-16, and is 5-2 ATS so far this year.
Accordingly, we are moving with the herd and laying the modest chalk in endorsement of the Phoenix Suns for the win versus the number Sunday afternoon.