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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

2021-22 NBA Playoffs: A Strategy for Betting Game 3's at the Sixers & Mavs

Updated: May 10, 2022

Backing backs against the wall for first half covers: Sixers -1.5 1H (-105) & Mavs -1.5 1H

In the two games since Joel Embiid left Philly's lineup with an orbital fracture and concussion, the Heat dealt the Sixers two double-digit losses. In fact, Philly won only one quarter out of the eight played at FTX Arena.

When the Bucks' Khris Middleton went down with an MCL injury, the Sixers ascended to favorites in the East, by our reckoning. However, absent 'The Process', the situation for Philadelphia-area basketball fans appears bleak. Nonetheless, history suggests modest optimism is warranted regarding the 76ers' prospects when the action shifts to Wells Fargo Center for game three, even if Embiid remains inactive.

Teams down 0-2 in NBA postseason play tend to cover the first half spread in game 3's.

The simple system of backing squads against the first half number that dropped the first two games of a series has delivered a 20% return on investment back to the 2004-05 postseason.

This angle has amassed an uninspiring 2-2 ATS record in the first round of this year's action, but would-be adherents should not be disheartened, as the profitability of this system tends to improve as the playoffs progress.

Historically, this strategy is 22-11-2 ATS, for a 67% cover rate, in the second round, a marked improvement from the 52-36-1 (59%) ATS record during opening series.

Worth noting, Miami has exhibited vulnerability to this system already this season. After jumping out to a 2-0 lead over Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks in the first round, the Heat lost the 1H and full game SU/ATS in the third contest, before finishing the Hawks in five.

On personnel, Embiid is reportedly making progress and insiders are "hopeful" for a return to action soon. Miami's Kyle Lowry is presently listed as unavailable due to a hamstring strain.

Separately, after covering games 1 and 2 of their second round matchup with Luka Dončić and the Dallas Mavericks, CP3, Book and the Phoenix Suns are riding a four- game SU/ATS win streak. As such, the aforementioned system likewise sanctions a play on the Mavs to beat the first half number in their next out.

Accordingly, we are backing both the Philadelphia 76ers and the Dallas Mavericks Friday, as slight first half home favorites.

Happy betting!!


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