Francisco Trinaldo -110 Vs. Jai Herbert +100
We are taking the flyer on the British UFC newcomer versus the grizzled veteran Brazilian in preliminary action for Saturday's final installment of UFC Fight Island. We concede that our pick for this event, Jai Herbert, is at a disadvantage when it comes to experience competing at this level--while today marks Herbert's UFC debut, his opposition, Francisco Trinaldo, has entered the Octagon 21 times since 2012 prior to today's action (this matters as The Action Network reports that UFC debutants lose to League veterans 57% of the time). However, most other metrics that we think will matter tilt us in favor of the lanky Brit.
We have written ad nauseam over the years and recently about the advantage conveyed by physical characteristics such as age and reach. [While we will spare our regular readers a recapitulation of the empirical rationale for considering extreme differences in the age and reach when handicapping contests, we will refer newer readers to our analysis (and betting pick) for another UFC Fight Island 3 contest, in which we fairly thoroughly detail this case.]
While, at age 32, Herbert is no spring chicken, Trinaldo's advanced age for a combat fighter (41) indeed makes Herbert a relative whippersnapper today (MMA fighters 9 years younger than their competition win about 65% of the time, by at least one account). Exacerbating the age discrepancy, we note that Herbert is a young 32, in that he turned pro at age 23, later than is typical.
Trinaldo's recent performance fits with the fighter in decline thesis. The Brazilian striker is 4-3 in his last seven fights, and we are not impressed by his two fight win streak heading into Saturday's action. Bobby Green came out of retirement to meet Trinaldo at UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Jacaré (Green was a 1-4-1.leading up to his decision to hang up his gloves)...and he still out-struck Massaranduba 50 to 31 over three full rounds. Similarly, most recently, John Makdessi out-landed Trinaldo 67 to 55 earlier this year, at UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira.
Herbert,on the other hand, is a knock out artist. Only one of The Black Country Banger's ten professional MMA wins has been decided by the judges, and only only resulted from submission. This is to say that Trinaldo probably can not afford to take one or two to deliver one this afternoon. In addition to the threat that Herbert's natural punching ability represents, we also note that, to our earlier point, fighters tend to be more prone to the KO as age advances.
Regarding reach, while exact arm reach stats are elusive for Herbert, we know he is four inches taller than the veteran. And, given the established linkage between arm span and height it is no stretch to project a meaningful (i.e. greater than 3.5" reach advantage for Herbert).
Research validates the intuitive idea that reach advantages matter most in stand up fights...and both Trinaldo and Herbert are strikers first, so length should indeed play to the newcomers advantage. Further, Herbert has indicated an inclination to stand at range and work off of his natural advantages. The footage below is of Herbert's 2018 romp with Erdi Karatas of the Netherlands. This fight is notable because it showcases Herbert's ability to pick apart a smaller fighter from distance.
Bottom line: We are betting on Jai Herbert's relative youth, length and power, guided by his proven (albeit not at this level) ability to exploit those benefits, against a smaller, older fighter, whose best years seem to be in the rearview mirror.
Happy betting!!