UFC Fight Island 2: Davi Ramos Arman Tsarukyan
Updated: Sep 8, 2020
Davi Ramos +200 vs. Arman Tsarukyan -220
Most notably, at age 33, Davi Ramos will enter this afternoon's lightweight division contest giving up ten years to the Arman Tsarukyan. This matters because fighters tend to start to exhibit notable decline in their late-20s. Dillon Huff evaluated 52,299 MMA contests in the Sherdog database through January 2019 featuring fighters of different (but known) ages and excluding disqualifications and no-contests. He observed that by age 33, the average fighter's win percentage lies in the mid-40s.
Further, that Tsarukyan is significantly younger adds to his edge today. Based on the same sample, Huff found that fighters a decade younger than their opposition won at better than a 60% clip.
Similarly, Sean Zerillo, for The Action Network, has observed that younger fighters of at least nine years best their aged counterparts 67% of the time.
Aside from the youth, expect Tsarukyan to be the more active and effective striker, as indicated by his positive net strikes landed per minute differential, compared to a negative figure for Ramos. Tsarukyan's 2.5" reach advantage should contribute to his keeping the fight upright, and getting the better of Ramos standing.
With all that said, the current -230 odds on the favorite, implying a 70% probability Arman's arm will be raised at the end of the night, reflect the contextual and natural physical advantages for Tsarukyan.
On the other hand, Arman Tsarukyan by decision -140 seems more reasonable (at a 58% implied probability). To justify this thinking, consider that of Tsarukyan's 14 MMA wins, only five have come by KO/TKO. And while the young Russian has also collected five submission wins, we expect Ramos' BJJ expertise to avert this peril this evening. Further, Ramos durability in his most recent bout, a September 2019 decision loss to Islam Makhachev, gives us added confidence that he is likely to withstand Tsarukyan's best shots on Fight Island.
Bottom line: As a result of Tsarukyan's youth and Ramos' age, as well as Tsarukyan's natural advantages, we regard the favorite by decision as the most likely outcome, and are comfortable laying a small wager on the Tsarukyan by decision prop at -140 (available at 5Dimes as of the time of this writing).