Ngannou vs. Velasquez
UFC Fight Night, Phoenix, AZ
February 17, 2019, 7:30 PM PDT
In competing action with the NBA All-Star Game, the #3 ranked UFC heavyweight, Francis "The Predator" Ngannou, will take on former two-time heavyweight champion, Cain Velasquez in the main event of the UFC on ESPN 1 card Sunday. The 32 year old Ngannou is off a 1-2 stretch in his most recent action, but this trying spell comes on the heels of a six fight win streak in which Ngannou never saw the third round.
The early going in the UFC for Cain Velazquez started with similar fanfare, as the veteran rattled off 13 wins and one loss between 2008 and 2013. However, Velasquez's career has been marred by injury more recently, and the great has not seen action since the summer of 2016.
Ngannou will enjoy advantages in important categories such as age and height/reach Sunday. We documented the edge youth generally confers in our analysis of UFC 234: Silva vs. Adesanya. Even a relatively modest age difference, as is the case in this instance, appears meaningful, as UFC fighters about four years their opposition's junior have won nearly 60% of a set of fights examined in a survey of 2,600 MMA contests for a 2011 study reported by Bloody Elbow.
Additionally, Drs. Paulie Govani and Alex Edmonds, in a piece for MMASucka.com, identified a positive correlation between height/reach advantage and win rate. Based on a sample of 1,178 MMA fights held in Nevada between 2003 and 2010, these researchers observed win rates in the 70% ballpark for fighters with an edge in the reach department of at least 3.5 inches.
Cain's minimal activity of late (probably) also favors Ngganou. Since out-classing Junior Dos Santos in the rubber match headliner for UFC 166 in 2013, Velasquez has entered the octagon just twice: for a 2015 loss to Fabricio Verdum at UFC 188, then at UFC 200 a year later, where he collected a win over Travis Browne.
Admittedly, hard data has proven elusive, so we can not quantify, or even validate, the axiom that extended layoffs convey bad information--i.e. about the body's inability to cooperate, or the fighter's psychological unpreparedness for combat, for instance. Nonetheless, the notion that fighters off long layoffs are, at the very least, dicey propositions does appear to be conventional thinking. Consider, for example the piece, "Think twice about returning to the ring after a long layoff", by IBHOF writer, Graham Houston. The author reminds readers of the old saw about fighters returning to combat after extended leaves, "They never come back."
In Velasquez"s case, his two-and-a-half year hiatus owes to back surgery and the requisite recovery process, but also to his subsequent decision to morph from bad-ass mixed martial artist to stay-at-home dad to his newborn son. We suspect such action may be an indication that fighting has fallen to less than Cain's foremost priority these days, which we surmise likewise supports Ngganou's cause.
But we can not interpret all the data as boding favorably for the Cameroon-born knock-out artist, as over his career, Velasquez has proven to be one of the most prolific strikers in the history of UFC heavyweights. To date, the veteran grappler has averaged +4.09 more significant strikes landed than significant strikes absorbed per minute. This same figure is +0.93 for ranked UFC heavyweights. Ngannou's net significant strikes per minute is a meager +0.03.
In fairness though, The Predator's punching power represents the great equalizer. To illustrate the peril that lives in Ngannou's hands, of his nine UFC appearances to date, the striker's fists have ended his opponent's evening early six times. Further, four of Ngannou's six UFC KO/TKO's have come in the first round.
But, the combination of Ngannou's penchant for first round stoppages and his performance in the loss to Stipe Miocic legitimately raise questions about stamina. As such, a likely key to a Velasquez victory Sunday relies Cain's ability to buck expectations about the capacity of aged fighters, and to demonstrate the high-octane output that landed him atop the UFC's significant strikes landed per minute list. In addition to a sustained high work rate, Cain will need a concerted effort to get inside Ngannou's long jab. Finally, Miocic exposed Ngannou's vulnerability to the takedown, so Cain would probably be well served to employ his grappling advantage.
For Ngannou, the game plan might be much simpler: exercise the long jab early and often to keep Velasquez out of his range and to set up power shots, and then knock Cain out...quickly.
Despite our envisioning a game plan that creates a path to victory for Velasquez, it appears most probable that Cain's body continues to exhibit the decline evident really since 2010. We expect that, at this point, Velasquez's performance will finally suffer commensurately.
Consistent with our thinking that time away can not undo the degradation to Cain's body, The Mac Life tweeted promotional footage of Velasquez working the pads a couple of days ago. Our friends at The Action Network note that Cain's right knee appears to buckle at about the 43 second mark of this exhibition action, prompting an immediate end to the session. If Velasquez's repaired body is threatening to betray him during friendly, scripted for-show mitt work, we probably should not expect otherwise when he faces the scariest man in MMA.
Bottom line: We are looking for Ngannou to continue his bounce-back bid, at Cain's expense Sunday. While Cain Velasquez arguably revolutionized the heavyweight MMA fight game with his emphasis on speed and endurance as an offset to his lack of natural size and power, there invariably comes a time when fighters must confront their own mortality. Several signs hint that 36 year-old Cain Velasquez has reached this point in his storied 11-year UFC career: 1) Ngannou is the younger and longer fighter; 2) after numerous injuries, including a torn meniscus and sprained MCL in in 2014, back injury in 2016, and ultimately the bone spurs that resulted in the most recent back surgery, Cain's body is worn; and 3) the fire may not burn as hot as it once did for Velasquez, as his interests in being husband and father, in particular, appear to compete with his ambition as a fighter. For all of these reasons, we are comfortable taking Ngannou at plus money odds.
Happy betting!!