Sam Alvey -115 vs. Rashad Evans
Mexico City Arena, Mexico City, Mexico
August 5, 2017, 10:30PM Pacific
Veteran fighter, "Suga" Rashad Evans will take on "Smile'N" Sam AIvey in UFC Fight Night 114 in Mexico CIty this evening. We are betting that Alvey's hand will be raised when the dust ultimately settles.
Our prediction for Bader vs Evans, back in 2015, noted that if history was a guide, Evans was approximately due to start to exhibit his age. This expectation was based on the general tendency for fighters to start to decline following their ninth year. Evans' path since 2013 (the start of his tenth year as a pro) has indeed adhered to old fighter script. Evans lost a decision Bader in UFC 192, as we predicted, and has since been stopped by Glover Teixeira and most recently lost a decision to Dan Kelly in Evan's debut at middleweight (incidentally, Alvey TKO'd Kelly inside the first minute of action at UFC Fight Night 65, in 2015).
And while Alvey is not an absolute standout at any particular facet of the craft, his heavy hands and accuracy give him the edge standing, versus the six years senior, slower, fragile-chinned Evans, in our estimation.
Also, Alvey has managed to thwart 85% of attempted takedowns throughout his professional career, suggesting that Evan's wrestling prowess, especially given the his diminished physical acuity, is not likely to play a major factor in tonight's proceedings.
Alvey's last fight resulted in a loss to Thales Leites (UFC FIght Night 108), however, Smile'N Sam is 4-1 in his last five out. As such, we expect Alvey will definitely be the more confident, relaxed fighter tonight, by a wide margin.
So, while we feel a great deal of empathy for the fighter who stays in the game too long, we see no objective reason to expect Evans to prove superior to the always game Sam Alvey this evening. As we see it, Alvey's advantages include youth, power, accuracy and a more durable chin. Evans has historically been better at defending strikes, but this strength too has shown slippage in recent years. We give Alvey a meaningfully better chance of beating Evans than the 53% implied by 5Dimes -115 price. Thus, we are comfortable backing the slight favorite.
Happy betting!!