Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics o216.5 -102
TD Garden, Boston Massachusetts
May 25, 2017, 5:30PM PST
Our OVER wager on the first game of the Eastern Conference Finals cashed in, but we have not had a high conviction call since. However, our sim work favors the OVER again this afternoon, in what is likely to be the final showdown of the series.
Cleveland ranked 4th by points scored during the regular season, and 2nd by true shooting percentage. LeBron James and company found a higher gear for the post-season though, and the Cavaliers are posting better than 115 points per contest in the playoffs (versus just over 110 during the regular season). We are looking for strong play from LeBron and Kyrie tonight, as the duo seeks to solidify the team's trip out West to face Golden State for the big trophy.
Exceeding the Vegas-implied team total of 113 indeed seems a reasonable feat for the Cavs, given that Cleveland has bested this number seven times in 12 playoff games. Further, Cleveland's O/U is 8-4 since the playoffs began.
The Celtics too ranked in the top-ten by points scored and true shooting percentage during the regular season. However, Boston's offense has been stifled at times in the current series. For instance, despite averaging around 105 points per game, the bean-town crew have been held to 21 points or less in seven of the 16 quarters this Conference Finals. As a potential offset though, we observe that the Celts' offense has been more productive since Isaiah Thomas's season-ending injury. The club has averaged 8.5 points more in each of the two games versus Cleveland without the star point guard than in the two games where Thomas logged minutes.
We expect Boston's offense to find it's mojo tonight, supported by the energy of the home crowd and the same grittiness that secured the top seed in the regular season. The Celtics' implied team total of 103.5 likewise appears to be achievable this evening.
Backing the OVER.
Happy betting!!