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NCAAF Birmingham Bowl: South Florida Bulls Vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

South Florida Bulls Vs. South Carolina Gamecocks u61 (-107) Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama

December 29, 2016, 11:00AM PDT

Our sim work supports the UNDER for this morning's Birmingham Bowl. Specifically, we think the Gamecocks' defense can keep a lid on the Bulls' offensive productivity (South Carolina ranks 37th by points allowed--five points below the NCAAF average). The Bulls' run-heavy style also fits with the idea of a payday for the under, as a dependency on the ground game tends to produce more clock-chewing short yardage plays than explosive plays that move the chains dramatically downfield (South Florida is 20th this year by rushing plays as a percentage of all offensive plays).

Additionally, we observe that the UNDER has exhibited a notable edge this Bowl Season. Through 24 Bowl games so far, the O/U 10-14, good for better than a 58% win rate for UNDER backers. We expect this trend to persist.

Happy betting!!

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