Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks u211.5 (-105) American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
December 27, 2016, 5:30 PM PST
We like the UNDER at American Airlines Center tonight primarily on the basis of our sim work. Additionally though, we note that UNDER-backers collected after each of the last four meetings between these teams, and 11 of the last 16.
Several Mavs' characteristics support lower scores, generally speaking. For instance, Dallas plays at an extremely slow-pace, as only the Utah Jazz average fewer possessions per game than the Mavericks, As a result, the Mavericks put up a League-worst 94.4 points per game. Also, Dallas tends to sap scoring opportunities from more offensively efficient opposition by turning their competition over 15.5 times per game, on average -- fifth best by this measure (turnovers are a known Achilles' heel for the Rockets). Further, the Mavs rank ninth in fewest personal fouls committed, while their opponents tend to commit fewer than all but six NBA teams. Thus, free throws do not much inflate scores in Dallas games.
In spite of the Rockets highly output, fast paced offense, at 17-15, Houston's O/U is only modestly biased in favor of the OVER this season. We also note that the Rockets will be playing their fourth road game this evening in their last seven out, and that Houston just mustered a 131 point effort versus the Suns last night that included 32 from Harden, but also ten or more from five supporting cast members. We think it likely that characters such as Montrezl Harrell and Sam Dekker do not chip in above-average, double digit scoring away from the comfort of home this evening, and, in fact, we would not be surprised to see a bit of fatigue manifest itself, broadly, on the Rockets' side of the scoreboard tonight.
Happy betting!!