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NCAAF Quick Lane Bowl: Maryland Terrapins Vs. Boston College Eagles

Maryland Terrapins vs Boston College Eagles +2.0 (-105)

Quick Lane Bowl, Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

December 26, 2016, 11:30AM PDT

Our sim work favors Boston College plus the modest chalk. In support of our computer simulation-based prediction, we note that the Eagles have been dominant in the head-to-head series with the Terrapins (against-the-spread) -- Boston College is 6-3 all-time, including covers in the last three meetings.

BC is also 3-2 versus the number in their last five out, versus a Maryland team that mustered only one win in its last five games played (importantly, the average conference seeding of Maryland's competition over its last five contests is 5.4 vs. 6.0 for Boston College, suggesting that the Terrapins had the tougher schedule, but not that much tougher).

For the past several years Boston College's offense has been skewed toward the rush -- and the Eagles are 14th this year by running plays as a percentage of total offense calls. This formula has pretty consistently resulted in covers versus Maryland and we see no reason to bet against the prevailing trend today, especially given that the Terrapins rank 104th in rushing yards allowed. Our best guess is that a solid day for the BC ground game will prove key to an Eagles cover.

Happy betting!!

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