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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

NFL Week 15 Thursday Night Football: Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets +3 (-135)

MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

December 19, 2016, 5:25PM PST

Our primary handicapping framework sees divisional action between the Fins and the Jets this afternoon as dead even. Our secondary suite of computer simulation indicators, on average, makes the Dolphins about two or three point favorites (two of our three independent routines favor the home cover). As such, we are comfortable the taking the points and backing the Jets.

Also supporting our pick, public sentiment is skewed the opposite direction. Per SportsInsights, for every bet on the Jets to cover, there are two backing the Dolphins.

Additionally, while home dogs were humbled last week by a 3-5 performance against the spread, this cohort remains a profitable 35-29-1 on the year (for an almost 55% win rate). In fact, a winning week for the five teams receiving points in their building in week 15 would not be surprising given week 14's poor performance ad the broader strength exhibited throughout the year. Thus, our play on the Jets finds support from this bigger picture trend as well.

On the other hand, we confess that our framework is a meager 4-6 picking Jets contests this season (we are 6-6 in Dolphins contests).

New York is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings with Miami. (though only 3-3 ATS in the last six at home). The Jets are also 2-1 against the AFC East (as are the Dolphins).

Happy betting!!

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