World Series Betting: Low Risk Play for Game 2
Chicago Cubs ML -143 @ Cleveland Indians +1.5 -135
Progressive Field, Cleveland,Ohio
October 26, 2016, 4:08PM PDT
Our four independent sim routines each back the Cubs again for game 2 of the World Series, despite the 6-0 spanking the Indians meted out yesterday.
As a result of yesterday's loss though, Bovada.lv's price for the series reset from -185 before game 1, down to -120 at present. The implication being that the Cubs chance of clinching the World Series diminished from almost 65% Tuesday to less than 55% currently.
Of further interest, FiveThirtyEight.com, which yesterday featured a similar probability for the Cubs to take the Commissioner's Trophy this year, has shifted gears entirely, now giving the Indians a roughly 55% chance of winning it all.
Against this dynamic landscape, and despite the the steeper odds for Chicago today versus yesterday, we are more reticent to back the Cubs outright tonight. We address our concern though with the following middle play: 49.4% of risk on the Indians +1.5 -135, 50.6% on Cubs ML -143. The worst case scenario is that either the Indians win on the runline OR the Cubs win on the moneyline (but not both). In either event, the bettor recoups 84% of total risk amount (i.e. loses 16% of risk). On the other hand, if Chicago wins by one run, the bettor profits by 72% of the risk amount. Considering that we do indeed expect tonight's game to be tightly contested, we find this 4.5:1 reward-to-risk skew quite attractive.