October 25th NBA Action: San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors
San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors u212 -110
Oracle Arena, Oakland, California
October 25, 2016, 7:30PM PDT
Our computer simulation work gives the Western Conference Champs about a sevenish point edge in tonight's home opener, on average, forecasting a 101-108 final. Our conviction is higher though regarding the total than the ATS winner, as the independent sim programs we employ are not unanimous in their winner versus the number. Accordingly, we are betting UNDER 212.
Despite the instant offensive potential associated with the Splash Brothers last year, the Warriors O/U was only 54-50-2 overall last year. Further, with a 26-27-2 record last season, the OVER was actually a losing proposition, generally speaking, in Golden State home games. On the other hand, the combination of the Spurs' slower pace and their commitment to defense produced a 39-51-2 overall record for San Antonio's O/U. Moreover, at 9-26-1 last year, the Spurs' UNDER was even more profitable when San Antonio hit the road. Also the UNDER is 6-1in the last seven head-to-head meetings betweenteh Spurs and Warriors.
Bottom line: Despite two out of every three totals wagers chasing the OVER, considering indications from our (unbiased) computer simulation work in conjunction with betting trends, the UNDER appears the rational play.