Last week's four NCAAF against the spread picks split, as two of our big favorites (Cal and Ohio) not only failed to cover, but lost outright. Fortunately, Virignia Tech routed North Carolina, and San Diego State beat the number with points to spare versus UNLV. Our three totals picks turned a profit, as combined scores for Marshall @ North Texas and Syracuse @ Wake Forest both came in below the betting line. Again Cal was a spoiler. In aggregate though, we managed a modest (0.63 units) profit.
In week 6, our trepidation regarding our decision to venture into college football this season restricted our focus solely on home teams and away favorites against the spread, and UNDERs in the totals space--cohorts where backtests demonstrated the best results. However, the combination of the aversion of calamity in our published picks and the aggregate (offline) performance of our framework last week has emboldened us. Accordingly, we are opening up for week 8. We examined the entire NCAAF week 8 docket, and feature below seven high-conviction ATS picks and nine OVER/UNDER plays.
9:00AM Iowa -11.0 (-120) @ Purdue
12:30PM Western Michigan @ Akron +14.0 (-120)
12:30PM New Mexico +14.0 (-110) @ Air Force
12:30PM Ball State @ Buffalo +10.5 (-115)
12:30PM North Carolina @ Miami Florida -6.0 (-120)
4:00PM Texas San Antonio -3.0 (-125) @ Rice
9:00PM UNLV +8.5 (-110) @ Hawaii
9:00AM West Virginia @ Texas Tech UNDER 84.0 (-115)
9:30AM Georgia Southern @ Georgia Tech OVER 48 (-105)
11:00AM Eastern Michigan @ Ohio OVER 54 (-110)
12:30PM North Carolina @ Miami Florida OVER 64.0 (-110)
12:30PM Louisiana Tech @ Massachusetts UNDER 63.0 (-105)
4:00PM Mississippi @ Arkansas OVER 66.0 (-115)
4:00PM Tulsa @ Houston UNDER 71.0 (-115)
4:00PM Texas San Antonio @ Rice UNDER 57.0 (-115)
7:15PM Colorado State @ Boise State OVER 58.0 (-110)
Happy betting!!