Utah Jazz @ Phoenix Suns +9 (-105) o193.5 (-105) Talking Stick Resort Arena, Phoenix, Arizona
April 3, 2016, 3:00PM PDT
Per our computer simulation + power rankings framework, we are looking for a final score in the ballpark of 102-96, Utah, when the final whistle sounds at Talking Stick Resort Arena this afternoon. As such, we find the Suns +9 as well as o193.5 compelling plays.
In support of the output from our primary spread model, we point out that the Jazz are a 17-21 ATS on the road, while the Suns are 20-18 at home. And while Phoenix has dropped five in a row straight up, the Suns have covered in three of their last four out and in seven of their last 11.
We anticipate that the Suns will respond to the 34 point rout Uah dealt them at Vivint Smart Home Arena on March 17th. Our sim work assumes that Utah Forward, Derrick Favors, will not go (Favors contributed 12 points, 5 boards, 2 steals and a block in the blowout last month). We are standing pat if Favors does suit up though.
Various accounts have the betting line opening at Phoenix +7.5 to 8. However, spread action looks to be consistently supporting Utah. In fact, SportsInsights reports 77% of ATS wagers back the Jazz. This observation suggests to us that those willing to take the flyer on Phoenix might want to commit closer to game time in hopes of picking up an extra half point or more.
Regarding our under recommendation, we note that Utah's over is 13-24 after a win, 2-10 as the road favorite, 13-27-1 following a day off and 18-26-1 facing fellow Western Conference teams. Similarly, Phoenix's o/u is 21-26-1 playing after a night off and 22-25 versus the West (the Suns' o/u after a loss is 27-27-1 and they are 19-19 at home).
Per SportsInsights, totals betting action is much more balanced, with 52% of wagers siding with the over and 48% backing the under.
Happy betting!!