Boston Celtics +3.5 (-109) @ Portland Trail Blazers Moda Center, Portland, Oregon
March 31, 2016, 7:00PM PDT
The independent simulation routines on our roster are evenly split over the straight up outcome for this contest: half are forecasting a 1-2 point win for the home team, while the other half make the visitors out to be about a bucket better tonight. In contrast, our power rankings work uniformly gives the Blazers a 1 point edge.
What both elements of our methodology have in common is the expectation that the Celtics will beat the number (no output lines in our approach call for a Portland win by more than 3). As such, we are backing Boston against the spread. Further, we would not be surprised if the Celtics managed the upset win.
Boston has covered in each of the last two head-to-head contests with the Trail Blazers, and in three of the last four meetings. Other betting trends offer, at best, benign indications.
Per SportsInsights, the betting line opened favoring the home team by 2.5-3 points. SportsInsights also reports that 68% of spread wagers back Portland currently. Given the current trend in the direction of the line movement and the still extreme public bias the Blazers' way, we would not be surprised to see the line widen more as tip-off draws nearer. Inclined bettors might want to hold out a while for heavier chalk.
Happy betting!!