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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

Good Friday NBA Action: Orlando Magic @ Miami Heat

Orlando Magic +9 (-105) @ Miami Heat AmericanAirlines Arena, Miami, Florida

March 25, 2016, 5:00PM PDT

Our computer simulation + power rankings framework favors the Magic to cover in Miami this evening. We forecast a final score of 101-108, Heat. As such, we are siding with Orlando on the road, plus the nine or so points.

While dropping eight of their last ten out, and their last five in a row straight up, the Magic are a respectable 6-4 ATS recently, including covers facing Charlotte, Cleveland and Toronto.

Conversely, Miami has won six of their last ten outright, but is a meager 4-6 versus the number of late. Also, we note that while the Heat are a passable 3-3 versus the number as big (double-digit) favorites, Miami has not fared well when expected to win by 8-10 points (they are 2-4 ATS from this spot).

Per SportsInsights, the CRIS betting line opened at Miami -7.5. A consistent drumbeat of Heat supporters though inflated the number to the current -9 (our system passed on this play at the open, but movement since created the present opportunity).

As 59% of spread wagers support the home cover still, we see scope for the spread to continue to creep up. As such, bettors might endeavor to hold out for Magic +9.5.

Happy betting!!

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