Washington Wizards @ Minnesota Timberwolves u217.5 (-105) Verizon Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
March 25, 2016, 4:00PM PDT
Our simulation work points to an average/median total combined score of 213 when the dust settles at Verizon Center tonight, suggesting significant value to under-backers.
While the Wolves' 39-30-2 aggregate o/u record suggest a general proclivity toward the over, there are trends that support the under this evening. For example, Minnesota is riding a two-game under streak--facing the highest and 3rd-highest scoring teams in the league, mind you. The Timberwolves' under is also 4-2 in their last half dozen out.
Similarly, the Wizards' o/u is 8-15 when favored at home this season, and Washington is 14-20-1 following a night off.
Further validating the prospect of a low scoring game Friday, in head-to-head play the under has been dominant in recent years where the Wizards and Wolves are concerned. Since 2011, the under is 7-3, including covers in each of the last two contests and a 3-2 stint in Washington during this period.
Thus, betting trends, in addition to our simulation routines highlight the under as the highest probability outcome when the Wizards square off versus the Timberwolves. Wager accordingly.
SportsInsights reports an opening line of 218 (Pinnacle). Totals betting action thus far has been overwhelmingly supportive of the under though, so the number is likely to continue to fall. This is to say that inclined bettors might want to book this one sooner than later.