Dallas Mavericks +16.0 (-105) @ Golden State Warriors
Oracle Arena, Oakland, California
March 25, 2016, 7:30PM PDT
Our simulation + power rankings framework favors the Mavs to cover at Golden State this evening. We make the Warriors to be 10-11 points superior on their home floor this tonight, well shy of the 16 points Dubs' backers are required to lay for this contest.
At 38-30-3, Golden State is the fifth best team in the league against the spread. However, the Warriors have been less friendly to bettors of late, gioing 7-7 so far in March. Additionally, we note that throughout hte season Golden State has disappointed against the softest competition. To illustrate, the Bay Area club is 6-10 against the spread when favored by 15 or more.
On the other hand, Dallas is no slouch against the spread, ranking #10 by ATS record. Also, the Mavs have played solid ball (versus the number) lately. Dallas is riding a two-game cover streak and is 4-1 ATS in their last five out. We also note that the Mavericks are solid versus the number (23-16-1) on one day's rest.
Bottom Line: While the Warriors are 19-14 ATS at home and 28-15-1 facing competition from the Western Conference, we observe evidence that the Warriors are letting off the gas a tad. We think this makes sense, as by consistently trouncing all contenders (save the Spurs) all season long, Golden State has already proven that, despite their improbable style, last year's success was no fluke. Now, rather than striving to blow teams out, the Warriors need to secure wins in a manner that garners as much rest for key personnel as possible. This nuanced shift in objective fits with the dropoff in their record ATS. If this hypothesis holds water, bettors should probably expect a continuation of the recent choppy performance versus the number for the remainder of the regular season, but we have gotten ahead of ourselves. Take the big chalk and back the Mavs tonight.