Mar 24 Sweet Sixteen Action: Duke Blue Devils vs. Oregon Ducks
Duke Blue Devils vs. Oregon Ducks u156 (-105)
Honda Center, Anaheim, California
March 24, 2016, 6:55PM PDT
We are backing the under based on the output from our multi-factor simulation model. We expect a final combined score in the ballpark of 153-154.
Both teams boast a slight bias in favor of the under, as is illustrated in their aggregated o/u records of 30-37. Further, both are more disposed toward the under following victories (Duke's and Oregon's combined o/u record is 20-30 from this position). Additionally the under has fared well in Blue Devils and Ducks games following long breaks (these teams o/u is a combined 15-23 following two or three nights off).
Moreover, consider that the Duke's under is 6-0 when when cast as the underdog, while Oregon's is 15-12 when the Ducks are favored.
Thus, in accordance with indications from our sim model and the preponderance of relevant betting trends data, we are backing the under.
SportsInsights reports an opening total line of 156.5 (5Dimes). Apparently though, over backers came out in force, as the line climbed as high as 159. From there, under supporters appear to have been dominant, which would explain the slide back down to current levels.
Also according to SportsInsights, the number of wagers on the over is approximately equal to the number of under bets (51%/49%).