San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves u207 (-105)
Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
March 8. 2016, 4PM PST
Our sim work calls for a combined total of 204-205 when the Spurs square off against the Timberwolves at Target Center this afternoon, making a play on the under a compelling wager from our perspective.
San Antonio has exhibited a natural bias toward lower scores this season, as is reflected in their 27-34-2 O/U record. In fact, the Spurs will enter tonight's competition riding a seven game under streak. This observation is not surprising considering that the combination of San Antonio's supreme defense and slow-paced style of play have allowed fewer points than any other team in the league this season. Further, the Spurs O/U is 12-18-1 when San Antonio is favored on the road.
As another slight support for the under, the Timberwolves have not demonstrated strong tendencies with regard to totals either as home underdogs (Minnesota's O/U is 8-10 from that spot), or in the wake of losing efforts (the Wolves O/U is 21-20-2 after losses).
Contrary to our call, we note that Minnesota's over is 8-2-2 when playing without a night off and 21-12-2 versus Western Conference competition. However, the Timberwolves' O/U is only 4-4 against the NBA's top five teams by opponents scoring. Thus, we are comfortable betting the Spurs defense to secure a trip to the cashier's window for under-backers.