Mar 8 NBA Action: Orlando Magic @ LA Lakers
Orlando Magic @ LA Lakers u213 (-105)
Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
March 8, 2016, 7:30PM PST
Our work points to a combined total of 209 when the Magic travel to Hollywood this afternoon. As such, we are playing the under.
Per SportsInsights, the total line opened at 213.5, but dipped as low as 211 before recovering to current levels. This late afternoon rebound presents opportunity, in our estimation.
The under has dominated head-to-head play between these teams in years past, rattling off four consecutive covers in as many of the most recent meetings, and boasting a 15-3 record since 2009.
Turning to broader betting trends, the Lakers O/U is 3-9 this season following a victory (LA stunned the Warriors two nights ago), suggesting that the rare feat of winning a game saps energy from future efforts. Similarly, Orlando is 16-18 following a loss (the Magic had the misfortune of encountering Golden State the night after the Lakers dispatched the champs).
In further support of the under, the Lakers over is 15-24-1 when playing following a night off and 9-15 versus the Eastern Conference.
While most recent betting trends for Orlando are essentially benign, the Magic's over record is 8-4 in the second game of back-to-backs.
Nonetheless, in aggregate, the heft of the recent betting trends data appears to fit with our simulation-based pick, and the conclusion that flows from the history of head-to-head play between the Magic and Lakers. Accordingly, we are backing the under.