Feb 23 NBA Action: Nuggets Out for Blood After Dropping Game Friday
Sacramento Kings @ Denver Nuggets ML (-112)
Pepsi Center, Denver Colorado
February 23, 2016, 6:00PM PST
Our multi-factor sim + power rankings work calls for Denver to avenge the loss the Nuggets were handed by these very Sacramneto Kings three days ago at Sleep Train Arena. We see Denver at home as about a bucket better than the visiting Kings tonight.
The Nuggets have collected straight up wins in five of their last ten out, while Sac has dropped seven of their last ten games. As such, there is no question about which team is currently hotter.
Further, the Nuggets 20-12-1 ATS record after a loss demonstrates a most impressive abilty to rebound (so to speak) following stumbles versus the the betting line. This stat did not deliver a cover in the wake of Friday's defeat (the Nuggets went on to lose to the Celtics Sunday), however, it should be noted that, prior to this stretch, Denver had not dropped two in a row ATS since December.
The Kings have not played since bypassing the Nuggets Friday. This is a worrisome condition, as Sacramento is 2-6 versus the number this season coming off of 2-3 idle days. Moreover, per their 12-15 record ATS, the Kings have not been particularly effective away from home. And Sac has experienced some tough sledding versus the betting line in non-division play (the Kings are 18-24 this year versus opposition outside the Pacific Divison).
Thus, trends betting appear aligned with the output from our primary models. We are therefore comfortable backing the Nuggets to win.