Feb 23 NBA Action: New Orleans Pelicans @ Washington Wizards
New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 (-105) @ Washington Wizards Verizon Center, Washington D.C.
February 23, 2016, 4:00PM PST
Our computer simulation + power rankings framework expects the Wizards to prevail when the Pelicans come to town ths afternoon, but not to cover the 4.5 points supporters are being asked to lay.
We make Washington to be about 2-3 points superior to New Orleans from the current spot. As such, we are taking the handful of points and backing the road dogs.
New Orleans has won four of thier last five games straight up, and has covered in three of those contests. Moreover, while the Pelicans are only 23-32 versus the number this year, New Orleans has pulled off some impressive road covers -- i.e. at Atlanta, Oklahoma City, Chicago and Los Angeles (Clippers).
Washington though has also been playing solid ball of late, as indicated by their 3-2 straight up and ATS record in their last five contests. However, the Wizards have exhibited some vulnerability, particularly at Verizon Center. For instance, Washington is 14-15 this season on their own floor, and 7-9-1 when favored at home.
Bottom line: As our primary models anticipate that Washington's erratic performacne at home will persist this evening, we are endorsing the visiting New Orleans Pelicans for the cover.