Feb 22 NBA Action: Playing the Total on Toronto Raptors @ New York Knicks
Toronto Raptors @ New York Knicks u203.5 (-102)
Madison Aquare Garden, Manhattan, New York
February 22, 2016, 4:30PM PST
The betting total opened at 202.5 per OddsShark, but has since been bid up to 203.5. We regard this movement an opportunity to jump on the UNDER.
The Raptors at the Knicks pits two of the NBA's better defensive teams against each other (New York ranks 10th by Opponents True Shooting Percentage, while Toronto is 12th). And while Toronto boasts one of the more efficient offenses in the game, the Raptors productivity (as measured in points per game) is only average as a result og Toronto's slow paced style of play.
Similarly, New York likewise tends to muster an underwhelming number of points per game (unlike Toronto though, the Knicks' limited scoring capacity is explained by their relatively inefficent offense rather than by pace). These circumstances appear an ideal backdrop for the UNDER to collect a payday.
The Raptors have been slightly more likely to disappoint in the scoring column following a win. Also the UNDER has held a nominal advantage over teh OVER this season when Toronto is installed as a road favorite. Further, both teams have struggled facing steeper lines. The Raptors' O/U record is 13-16 this season against a line of 200 or higher, while the Knicks' O/U is 10-16 under the same circumstance.
Of some concern, Toronto's avergae age is more than a year less than than the midpoint for the league. And these young Raptors have indeed demonstrated an immunity to a lack of rest, as the OVER is 7-3 when Toronto plays without a day off. However, we find the output from our simulaiton work adequately compelling to justify our playing the UNDER, particularly when coupled with modest support from performance statistics and betting trends.