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Feb 22 NBA Action: Picking a Side in Toronto Raptors @ New York Knicks


Toronto Raptors ML -155 @ New York Knicks

Madison Square Garden, Manhattan, New York

February 22, 2016, 4:30PM PST

Our computer simulation + power rankings framework suggests the boys from Canada should roll past the Knicks at MSG this afternoon and extend their stint of strong play. Specifically, our approach makes Toronto about a bucket better than New York. today As such, we are betting on the Raptors to win.

Toronto is curently in the midst of a terrific run. Since dropping consecutive games to Chicago and Cleveland in early January, Toronto has rattled off 15 wins versus only three losses, catapulting the Boston Celtics in the process to claim the top spot in the Eastern Conference's Atlantic Division.

On the other hand, at 12 wins behind the Raptors, teh Knicks currently occupy the #3 spot in the Atlantic Division. To crystalize the extend of New York's woes, consider that the a 103-95 win at Minnesota Saturday, represented the first win for the month of February for the Knicks.

Despite Melo's apparent return to form (after batlling knee soreness earlier in the season), and the the promise Rookie of the Year contender, Kristaps Porzingis, has demonstrated to date, we estimate that the Raptors' are simply too much for the Knicks to contend with at present.

To be clear, New York is a solid defensive team, ranking 10th in the league by Opponents True Shooting Percentage. However, Toronto is also defensively proficient (the Raptors rank 12th by this same measure). The differnce between these teams though is glaringly apparent when examining respective levels of efficiency with the ball. The Raptors are 9th in True Shooting Percentage, versus the Knicks' #23 seeding on the basis of this statistic.

We believe that, near-term, the Knicks moment of overachievement has played out (in the form of the road win as 3.5 point underdogs two days ago), and that Toronto's clearly superior offense will deliver the victory this evening.

Happy betting!!

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