Atlanta Hawks -3 (-120) @ Orlando Magic
Amway Center, Orlando, Florida
February 7, 2016 10:00AM PST
The Magic will host the Hawks this afternoon without the services of Guard Tobias Harris, who is sidelined as a result of ankle soreness. As Orlando’s second leading scorer, Harris will undoubtedly leave a void on offense. However, backup Evan Fournier (who is expected to play in place of Harris) is more adept on offense than the Magic’s starter, as reflected by Harris’ -0.03 Offensive Real Plus Minus statistic vs. Fournier’s +1.31.
On the other hand, Fournier lacks Harris’ defensive zeal (Fournier’s Defensive Real Plus Minus is -1.17, while Harris sports a +1.19 DRPM).
In aggregate, we estimate Orlando’s personnel shifts to amount to an additional two points of advantage for Atlanta (approximately). We expect this additional edge will be adequate to secure the cover for the Hawks, as three point favorites.
Our simulation work corroborates this perspective, as the four independent routines in our lineup unanimously endorse Atlanta to beat the number. Moreover, our models identify about a 1-in-5 chance of this game getting ugly (i.e. Atlanta winning by 20 or more). Accordingly, we are comfortable laying the three and backing the Hawks on the road.
Atlanta will carry a three-game wins streak, both straight up and against the spread, into today’s contest. Orlando too has covered in each of their last three out, including ATS wins as double-digit dogs in San Antonio and Oklahoma City. The Hawks though have covered in the last three head-to-head matchups with Orlando, and all indications point to a continuation of Atlanta’s hot streak today.
Happy betting!!