Feb 4 NCAAB Action: Betting on the UNDER to Have a Day
After taking several days off, we return to our post bright-eyed and bushy-tailed, and with plenty of NCAA Men's Division I Basketball action on tap for Thursday.
Per our accounting of data from VegasInsider.com, the OVER/UNDER is 29-31-4 through the first three days of February. This observation is consistent with empirical study. For instance, Borghesi, Paul and Weinbach (2010) concluded that not only do gamblers gravitate toward OVERs in totals betting, but profit-seeking bookmakers attempt to take advantage of this tendency by by shading totals lines upwards. Resultantly, actual game totals tend to fall just under the betting line more often than just over the O/U threshhold. This generalizaton fits with the slight advantage for the UNDER observed since February 1.
Our work though expects the UNDER to assert itself in a big way today, and our seven picks reflect this anticipation.
Delaware @ Elon u154.5 (-110)
North Carolina Wilmington @ Hofstra u155 (-110)
Wisconsin Green Bay @ Northern Kentucky u162.5 (-110)
Detroit @ Cleveland State u150 (-110
Saint Mary's @ BYU u151.5 (-110)
IPFW @ South Dakota u156.5 (-110)
Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona u159 (-110)