Jan 29 NBA Action: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons +4.5 (-105)
The Palace, Auburn Hills, Michigan
January 29, 2016, 4:30PM PST
Our multi-factor simulation and power rankings methodology expects a narrow road win for the Cavs (by a mere point or two) when Cleveland visits the Pistons this evening. The most negative lines in our model anticipate a 3-4 point Cleveland margin of victory. On the other hand, two factors on our roster call for Detroit to win outright. Given the strong support for the prospect of a home cover, we find Detroit +4.5 compelling.
The Pistons will enter tonight's match-up riding a two-game win streak (straight up and versus the number). Additionally, Detroit is a formidable 15-6-1 this season playing at The Palace, 13-9-2 following a win and 12-8-2 as the underdog. Moreover, the Pistons are 14-9-1 versus Eastern Conference foes, and 5-4 when pitted against Central Division rivals.
The Cavs, on the other hand, are coming off the final test of a four-game home stand Wednesday, which resulted in a 23 point win and cover over Phoenix. Cleveland won four of their last five striaght up and covered in three of those contests. In aggregate though, the Cavaliers have been lackluster versus the spread this season, as reflected by their 20-23-1 record ATS. Cleveland is also 14-16-1 after a win, 6-11-1 as a road favorite, 12-15 in conference games and 2-4 in intra-division play though.
Head-to-head, Detroit covered in each of the eight contests between these treams in 2012 and 2013, but Cleveland is 5-3 ATS since. The Pistons though are 4-2 over this timeframe at home, and Detroit took the most recent meeting.
Given the alignment of betting trends with our computer simulation and power rankings frameworks, we are comfortable taking the points and backing the boys from Motown this evening.