Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 (-105)
Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
January 28, 2016, 5PM PST
Prior to sustaining a home loss versus Houston Monday, New Orleans was in the midst of one of their best stretches of the season. The Pelicans had won each of their last three out, and beat the number in the preceding contest at Memphis, for a string of four consecutive covers. While our framework does not explicitly consider betting trends, the unanimous indication from our methodology is that the Pelicans should right foot themselves with a win against the spread this evening, when they host the Sacramento Kings.
Kings Center, DeMarcus Cousins, is one game removed from a career-best 56 point performance versus Charlotte. However, the fifth year big man from Kentucky's recent body of work also includes 46 and 38 point outings (although Cousins 17 points Tuesday on 4-21 from the floor, in a losing effort at Portland, was decidedly lackluster).
New Orleans' own franchise big, Anthony Davis, is undoubtedly aware of Boogie Cousin's recent success. Our numbers crunching efforts suggests the uber-talented Davis will play inspired basketball tonight in an effort to limit the praise heaped upon Cousins at the Pelican's Smoothie King Center.
In aggregate, our combination computer simulation / power rankings approach calls for a New Orleans win by about a point or two. We are comfortable playing the spread (rather than the moneyline) though for the 3.5 point cushion (a few individual factors in our system call for a Kings win straight up -- but not the cover).
In head-to-head play, the Pelicans and Kings have alternated wins/covers over the last six meetings.
Per OddsShark, New Orleans opened as two point underdogs.
Happy betting!!