Detroit Pistons @ Denver Nuggets +3.5 (-105)
Pepsi Center, Denver, Colorado
January 23, 2016, 6:30PM PST
Our simulation + power rankings framework sees the Pistons winning by a bucket when Detroit visits the Nuggets this afternoon. Similarly, our logistic regression model estimates a 53% probability of the home cover (at +3.5). Thus, we are comfortable taking the points and backing Denver to beat the number.
The Pistons are 5-5 versus the betting line in their last ten contests, and 2-3 in their last five out. Moreover, this particular spot does not suit Detroit particularly well, as they are a meager 2-6 ATS when favored on the road.
As 2.5 point favorites, the Motown boys took a spanking at the hands of Anthony Davis and the Pelicans in their last out. We do not expect things to get easier tonight, in the third matchup of a four-game road trip, as the Pistons will face a Nuggets team that has been red hot of late (versus the number, anyway). Denver has covered in seven of their last ten games, in four of thier last five, and are riding a three-game win streak against the spread. Further, the Nuggets are 8-8-1 on the season from the position of home dogs.
Finally, consider that since 2010, Devner has covered six times in games facing Detroit. This sample includes a 4-2 streak playing in Denver .
Bottom line: Betting trends appear to be in sync with our computer simulation routines and power rankings work. As such, we are betting on Denver to extend its streak of successive covers to four, at the expense of a road weary Pistons squad.
Happy betting!!