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Dec 29 NCAAB Action: Purdue Boilermakers @ Wisconsin Badgers

Purdue Boilermakers -5.5 (-105) @ Wisconsin Badgers

Kohl Center, Madison, Wisconsin

December 29, 2015, 6:00PM CST

Our computer simulation and power rankings works anticipates a Boilermakers win by 8-9 when Purdue visits Wisconsin this evening. Accordingly, we advocate laying the 5 1/2 and backing the road team to cover.

Purdue (12-1 straight up) collected an absolute and against the spread home win over Vanderbilt a week ago, and are 4-1 versus the number in their last five outings. The Boilermakers are 7-3 ATS on the season.

The Wisconsin Badgers are 8-5 straight up, but a meager 4-9 against the spread this season, including a 3-6 stretch versus the number at their own Kohl Center.

In head-to-head play, Wisconsin has gotten the better of the Big 10 rivalry since 2010, as indicated by the Badgers' 6-4 record ATS when facing the Boilermakers over the last five years. Further, Wisconsin has fared well historically when receiving points, as the Badgers are 3-1 versus Purdue during this period when slated as the underdog.

However, the Boilermakers are 3-2 versus the number at the Badgers over this span, and Purdue has taken three of the last five contests overall when facing Wisconsin.

The Boilermakers rank in the top decile in offensive efficiency (as measured by True Shooting Percentage). Further, Purdue's #1 rankings in both Opponents True Shooting Percentage and Defensive Efficiency argue that the Boilermakers boast the top defense in the nation. Purdue is also the best rebounding team in Men's Division I college basketball.

Conversely, while the Badgers are solid on the boards and on defense (ranking 49th in rebounding and 90th by Opponents' True Shooting Percentage), Wisconsin's offense is below average, occupying the 219th slot by True Shooting Percentage. We expect Purdue's superior offensive proficiency as well as their stout defense to deliver the cover this afternoon.

Happy betting!!

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