Atlanta Hawks +3 (-105) @ Houston Rockets
Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
December 29, 2015, 6:00PM CST
Our computer simulation and power rankings work anticipates a Rockets win by 0-2 points, shy of the bogey for the collecting cover. Accordingly, we are backing the Hawks +3 on the road.
Atlanta had won six straight (4-2 ATS), including three in a row at home, before fleeing the nest to take on the Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse Monday. The Hawks lost by six in Indiana, and now look to salvage the current three game road trip with wins tonight and at the New York Knicks Sunday.
After opening the season 5-10, Houston is currently on a bid to restore respectability to the franchise. The Rockets are 9-5 straight up in December (8-6 against the spread).
Since 2010, Houston has covered in six of the ten contests between these two teams, but is only 3-3 during this span at home. The Hawks are 2-1 ATS most recently versus the Rockets.
Atlanta is better than Houston on offense and defense, ranking 9 slots higher than the Rockets by True Shooting Percentage and 6 positions above by Opponents' True Shooting Percentage. The Hawks enjoy a similar advantage over the Rockets in turnovers committed, sorting 15th by this measure, versus 27th for Houston.
Further, the Hawks epitomize team basketball, notching the third-most assists in the league, while the Rockets are 19th by this score, as James Harden is burdened with having to manufacture the brunt of Houston's offensive productivity (Harden tops the minutes played ranking and is second by field goals attempted).
In Houston's favor, the Rockets are 10th in rebounding, while Atlanta is dead last in this category.
Nonetheless, though Houston appears to have momentum on its side of late, we ascribe more value to the Hawks consistency than the Rockets ability to get hot for a stretch. We are uncertain as to whether the current Houston run is anything more than that. As such, and consistent with the strong indications from our handicapping framework, we are backing the Hawks plus the points.
Happy betting!!