Marshall Thundering Herd @ Maryland Terrapins u156.5
Xfinity Center, College Park, Maryland
December 27, 2015 4:00PM EST
There is only one top-25 college basketball game on today's calendar, as NFL dominates the sports scene on Sundays. However, our work generates a compelling play when Maryland hosts Marshall this afternoon.
We are betting UNDER 156.5, as our multi-factor simulation methodology anticipates a combined total in the 152-153 ballpark.
This season the average and median team score in Men's Division I College Basketball is 72 points (up from around 67 last year). But at about 78 and 80 points per game respectively, both Marshall and Maryland surpass this marker. Despite their scoring prowess though, Marshall' s O/U record is 5-6, suggesting the UNDER is modestly more likely to cash in than the OVER when the Thundering Herd are on the floor.
On the other hand, the OVER has been a solid play in Terrapins games, as indicated by Maryland's 7-3-1 O/U record. However, this string of paydays for OVER supporters was mostly collected against below average betting lines. For instance, five of Maryland's seven OVERs came facing lines in the 130s. The other two unfolded against totals of 142 and 150. Thus, 156.5 represents the stiffest obstacle Maryland's OVER-backers have seen season-to-date.
Marshall is more accustomed to bloated totals lines, as the Thundering Herd have seen totals of 150 or more eight times in their 12 games this year. The OVER covered only three times from this spot.
Further, based on each team's Defensive Efficiency versus average and median figures, Maryland's D is about 8% better than typical, which should limit Marshall's scoring output. Conversely, Marshall is about 5% worse than average on defense, hinting that Maryland might experience greater ease than usual finding the bucket. In aggregate though, the impact of Maryland's strong play against the ball should more than offset the effect of Marshall's lax defensive effort (as Maryland's D is further above average than Marshall's is below average).
Back the UNDER.
Happy betting!!