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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

Dec 27 NBA Action: Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings

Portland Trail Blazers +9 (-105) @ Sacramento Kings

Sleep Train Arena, Sacramento, California

December 27, 2015, 6:00PM PST

The average and median lines implied by our multi-factor simulation and power rankings models point to Portland +4. Accordingly, we are backing the Blazers to cover on the road this evening.

The Lillard-less Blazers have so far covered versus the Hawks and beat the Cavs outright, but took a thumping at the hands of the Pelicans in between, for an aggregate 2-1 record against the spread.

The Kings are 4-5 versus the number from the position of favorite, with three of the four covers coming against spreads of 2-2.5 (the remaining cover was collected in the second game of the season, facing the Lakers +7.0). Sac supporters have not been asked to lay this much chalk all season long.

Both teams are coming off upset wins as pretty deep underdogs. but Portland just played last night. The Blazers are 3-4 against the betting line on zero nights rest. Nonetheless, we can not justify making the Kings 9 point favorites.

To us, the inflated line appears a vast overreaction to Lillard's absence coupled with the Kings most recent road win over the Pacers. But we think Kings @ Pacers was as much about what Indiana did not do as it was what Sacramento did. To wit, Paul George played poorly, managing only 12 points on 5-19 from the floor, including 1-7 from deep. Further, though the Pacers average 53 boards per game at home, they collected just 39 last out, and were outrebounded by 9 by a team of similar proficiency.

In our estimation, a very emotional reaction has created opportunity for the unbiased bettor.

Happy betting!!

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