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Dec 13 NBA Action: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Phoenix Suns

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Phoenix Suns

Talking Stick Resort Arena, Phoeniz, Arizona

December 13, 2015, 1:30PM MST

Our work highlights the Minnesota Timberwolves to cover at the Phoenix Suns this afternoon. Our simulation-based work, on average, makes the Suns out to be four points better than the Wolves today, while our power rankings inputs give Phoenix about a three point advantage for this contest. As such, we perceive significant value siding with Minnesota.

Both teams have been poor bets against the spread this season. The Timberwolves are 10-12 versus the number, while, at 11-12, the Suns are virtually just as bad. Further, Minnesota has dropped five straight ATS, and Phoenix is 7-3 in their last 10 out.

However, an examination of the head-to-head series between these teams decidedly favors the Wolves. Since 2010, these teams have faced each other 19 times. Minnesota has covered in 11 of those instances. Further, ten of those contests took place in Phoenix. From this spot, the Timberwolves are an impressive 7-3 versus the betting line.

Given the combination of favorable betting trends and the strong signal from our sides handicapping framework, we are siding with Minnesota +5.5.

The betting line opened at Timberwolves +6.0, per OddsShark, but support for Minnesota has pressured the number down to the current +5.5 level. Consistent with this change in the betting line, OddsSahrk reports that 60% of spread wagers back the Wolves.

Personnel notes: Tyson Chandler is expected to return to the lineup for Phoenix, however the 15th year pro will play limited minutes (off the bench). As far as we can tell, there has been no word on Markieff Morris (PHO) or Andre Miller (MIN).

Happy betting!!

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