Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors u222.0 (-115)
The Warriors and the Suns combined for 251 points last night at Talking Stick Resort Arena (versus the betting line at 217). Following such a barn burner performance, it might be hard for some to stomach the idea of backing the under. We offer the following support for our pick.
The over is 8-9 overall in Warriors games this season, making the under slightly more likely, generally speaking. Further, 222 represents the highest total of the season for Golden State. In the six Warriors games where the closing line reached 215 or higher, the under is 4-2. Also, the under is 5-2 in Warriors games following an over.
Additionally, the Kings have been vulnerable to the under versus strong defenses. Of the seven instances where the under has prevailed in Sacramento games, six came against top 11 defenses by defensive efficiency. The Warriors rank 5th in the league by this measure.
As intriguing as recent betting trends are, it is our primary work (based on computer simulations) that guides our totals wagering decisions. Our suite of independent computer-based projection routines strongly endorse a relatively low aggregate score. Our composite indicator predicts a total of 214, with individual factor estimates ranging from 208 to 219. In aggregate, we project a 41-43% chance of the over cashing in.
Bottom line: Take the under against one of the higher totals of the season and a constructive betting trends backdrop.