Miguel Cotto vs. Saul Alvarez -265 (@Bovada)
November 21, 2015, 9PM PST, HBO PPV
Mandalay Bay, Las Vegas, Nevada
We expect that Canelo Alvarez (45-1-1, 32 KO's) possesses too much size and power for Miguel Cotto (40-4, 33 KO's) to bear at this stage of his career. While we are not convinced that a stoppage is in the cards, we are confident that the bigger, younger fighter will dispatch his aged (but still game) adversary.
We take Cotto's post Mayweather/Trout win streak with a grain of salt as Sergio Martinez, after 55 professional prizefights, was a mere shadow of his former self when he faced Cotto. In fact, that encounter would be Martinez's last fight, as the 17 year veteran pugilist ultimately retired from the sport following his dance with Cotto.
Further, 35 year old Delvin Rodriguez, another of Cotto's recent stepping stones, also looks washed up. Since meeting Cotto, Rodriguez lost a decision to Erislandy Lara and earned a draw against Joachim Alcine (Alcine's record since 2012 is 2-6-1).
In the most dominant performance of Cotto's renaissance, he stopped 34 year old Daniel Geale in the 4th round of their June 2015 match. However Geale was not in shape and had to cut somewhere in the ballpark of 25 lbs to make weight (Geale rehydrated from 157 to 182 after the weigh in).
If 35 year old Miguel Cotto is past his prime, Alvarez, at age 25, looks to be entering his peak performance years. The sole blemishes on Canelo's professional record are a loss to the the great Floyd Mayweather, Jr. -- certainly a forgivable defeat, and a draw versus Jorge Juarez early in Alvarez's career (circa 2006).
As another testament to Alvarez's ability, the heavy-handed Mexican fighter has ended six of his last 10 fights by stoppage. Of note, Cotto has demonstrated vulnerability in the past to power-punching opposition, having been TKO'd by both Manny Pacquiao and Antonio Margarito.
Bottom line: We think Cotto's recent three-fight win streak is deceiving, as the level of competition was lackluster. The Puerto Rican Champion will face his biggest challenge in years tonight. Our best guess is that the bigger, hard-hitting, more durable Saul Alvarez will earn the decision over a ring-worn veteran whose best days are behind him. We wouldn't bet against Alvarez closing the show, however.
We balked at the betting line when it was north of 300, however, we think Alvarez -265 is palatable. Siding with size and youth over years of experience.
Happy betting!!