Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons u204.0
Our quant work predicts a combined total of about 200 points when Detroit hosts Washington this evening at the Palace of Auburn Hills. Individual factors in our model estimate a range of 197-202 for the aggregate score. We see a 56% probability of the under cashing in this evening.
The Wizards are the 5th highest scoring team in the league, however, while Washington averages 107 on the floor of their own Verizon Center, productivity slips noticeably to about 100 points when the Wizards are traveling.
Detroit's defense too might impact Washington's ability to post points. The Pistons are 5th in points allowed per game, 4th in opponents shooting percentage, 11th in fast break points allowed and 12th in defensive rebounding. Each of these stats undermine the potential for a shootout Saturday.
Also in support of the under, Detroit is not a barn-burner type of team. The Pistons are 25th in points scored and 29th in true shooting percentage. As such, it would not surprise us if Detroit too struggled to record buckets this evening, even against Washington's notoriously porous defense.
Further, Detroit has not fared well this season when playing without a night off. In the second game of the three back-to-back sequences the Pistons have endured, Detroit registered 92, 95 and 85 points and the under prevailed in each case. Granted the first two contests were against noted defenders (namely, the Warriors and the Jazz), however, the lowest tally of the trio came versus the Lakers, whose defense prowess is somewhere between average and poor.
The real bad news for under backers is that the over is 7-1-1 in games featuring the Washington Wizards. But, as an offset to this this high scoring bias, Detroit's aggregate over/under record is a meager 4-8 this season, including a 4-0 record for the under in games the Pistons are expected to win.
We anticipate that Wizards 2-Guard, Bradley Beal, will miss tonight's action due to an ailing left shoulder he has been nursing for the last month-and-a-half. If Beal suits up though, we expect the betting line -- as well as the realized total -- to be pressured higher.
In head-to-head action since 2013, the under is 4-3-2 when these teams have gotten together.
OddsShark reports an opening line of 203.5 and, per SportsInsights, 64% of totals wagers are backing the under.
Happy betting!!