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Nov 21 Early Bird NBA Action: Sacramento Kings @ Orlando Magic


Sacramento Kings @ Orlando Magic ML (-135)

Our preferred power rankings approach makes the Magic to be 3 points better than the Kings at home this afternoon. Similarly, our algorithmic/simulation work also points to an Orlando win, by about 2.5 points. As such, our forecasts imbue confidence in an Magic victory outright, however the cover appears a more dubious proposition. Accordingly, we are paying up and playing the Magic on the moneyline.

Since 2010, the head-to-head series between the Kings and the Magic has been back and forth. Sac accrued a modest 6-5 advantage over this 11 game stretch, however, momentum has been rather cyclical (i.e. Orlando has taken the last two matchps both straight up and versus the number, but the Kings owned the four prior contests; the three preceding games were more back-and-forth, but the Magic rattled off a 5-game streak just prior). As the Magic took the last two games facing the Kings, it appears as though 'the Force' resides with Orlando currently.

Our quantitative assessment, the streakiness evident when these two teams clash and the fact that the Magic have taken the last two contests make us comfortable betting with the momentum for Saturday's game.

Per VegasInsider.com, Orlando was originally installed as 2.5 point favorites; the betting line though has crept up to 3.5. Consistent with this positive line value in the Magic's favor, we booked Orlando to win (-135) on 5Dimes this morning; the juice has since moved up to -155. However, betting dollars have come in on the Kings +3.5/4.0 points. Relatedly, while OddsShark reported earlier this morning that 67% of spread wagers were backing Orlando, that number has since delcined to 55%. As such, we would not be surprised to the spread tighten from current levels between now and tip off

Take the Magic on the moneyline, but be patient -- we deem -155 to be a bit too rich for our liking, and circumstances appear supportive of a tightening of the line before the 5pm Eastern tip off.

Happy betting!!

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