Nov 18 NBA Action: Change in Line Compels Us to Action
Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets u212.0 (-105)
Our model calls for about 205 combined points when the Rockets host the Trail Blazers tonight. More specifically, we expect Houston to post about 104 vs 101 for Portland. The current Las Vegas betting line implies a final score 109.5-102.5, Houston. Thus, we think the shortfall in scoring output will owe to a bad offensive night for the Rockets.
As indicated by their 4-7 record, the Rockets are no strangers to low productivity nights this season. To this point, the under is 6-4 in Houston's games this year. Further, the under is 5-2 generally when the Rockets play at home, and 3-2 when Houston is favored at the Toyota Center.
At 7-5 covering the over, Portland's record suggests a greater inclination to beat the total, however, 212 is a big number. In contests where the betting line closed above 200, the the under is 5-3.
Also, the shakeup in Houston at the coaching position might serve as a wake up call for teh Rockets -- we might see a modicum of defensive effort from Houston tonight.
Per OddsShark, the line opened at 206.5 before shooting higher to 212. Further, the public appears to be about evenly split, as 51% of wagers are taking the under.