Nov 9 NBA Action: San Antonio Spurs @ Sacramento Kings
San Antonio Spurs @ Sacramento Kings u205 (-105)
We expect the plodding offensive style and lockdown defense of the San Antonio Spurs, who are ranked #2 by Jeff Sagarin's NBA power ratings, to disturb the rhythm and ultimately impair the offensive productivity of the #26-rated Sacramento Kings.
While the Spurs' are 6th in True Shooting Percentage, San Antonio ranks 21st in Possessions per Game this year. This contrast explains the Spurs' middle-of-the-pack productivity in terms of points per contest (San Antonio is 16th by PPG, to be precise, and has scored in the triple digits in only three of their six out). As such, we do not anticipate that the Spurs will kill the over's chance at a payday this evening.
As a testament to their defense though, San Antonio is 3rd by points allowed and 6th in Opponents True Shooting Percentage. As such, we think the Kings are likely to disappoint relative to their average output.
Further, the Spurs sort 2nd in defensive rebounding, suggesting Sacramento's second-chance points should be limited tonight.
Also, the return of the Kings' 270 lb, 6'11" big man, Demarcus Cousins, might also slow Sac's pace somewhat.
Our quantitative work expects a combined total in the 198-204 range. Accordingly, we are betting the under.
OddsShark reports an opening total of 207.5. Value seekers, such as ourselves, though have bid the number down to 205 as of the time of this writing. Public wagers are about evenly spilt though (51% of wagers favor the under), per SportsInsights.