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Nov 4 NBA Action: Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers Pair Bet

Boston Celtics (-125) @ Indiana Pacers u206 (-108)

Our composite line estimator anticipates a Celtics win this evening when Boston challenges Indiana at the Pacer's Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Even after accounting for Indiana's home court advantage, which Jeff Sagarin represents is currently worth just about 2 points, we still make the Celtics to be the better team by about a couple of points.

Both the Celtics and the Pacers are below average on offense, as measured by points per game. So far this season, the prototypical NBA team is posting just over 101 points per game. The Celts have managed 100.7 through their first three games (good for 15th in the league), while the Pacers sit near the bottom of this list (#27), averaging a meager 93 points per game. Boston's and Indiana's Offensive Efficiency rankings (25th and 28th, respectively) reflect their struggles scoring buckets.

Additionally, Indiana has shown a tendency to sucomb (at least temporarily) to imposing defenses. This phenomenon is illustrated most recently by the 15 point 4th quarter in Detroit Tuesday, but the Pacers likewise underachieved in the first quarter versus Memphis (where they mustered a sub-par 20 points) and also in the in the second quarter at Toronto (when Indy, again, managed only 15 points). As Boston is top-ten guarding the ball (per Defensive Efficiency numbers) a minimally productive stretch for Indiana this eveing is by no means a stretch.

In addition to favoring Bostin to win straight up, the relative offensive ineptitude of these teams, along with the Celtics' stout defense, is also consistent with the UNDER cashing in tonight. Consider for instance that the Pacers and Celts are 1st and 2nd in the NBA in Steals Per Defensive Play. This statistic suggests that both offenses might see some output suffer tonight, owing to turnovers.

Each input in out totals prediction model supports the UNDER, and in aggregate, our quant work calls for a combined total score in the 200 point ballpark, suggesting substantial value to UNDER-backers.

While Boston has dropped two in a row straight up and ATS, the Celtics have taken 5 of the last 6 head-to-head meetings versus the number, and Boston is 5-1 against the line in the last 6 in Indiana. On the other hand, the Pacers have not covered in the the second game of back-to-backs in their last six out, and have dropped 3 consecutive games ATS.

Per VegasInsider, the betting line opened with Indiana as 2-point favorites, but has since swung to favor Boston by 2. The total apparently was installed at 199.5, but has rocketed higher toward 206.

Take the Celtics to win and UNDER 206.

Happy betting!!

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