Dallas Mavericks -5.5 @ Los Angeles Lakers

Rotoworld quotes Laker Head Coach, Byron Scott, as indicating that Jeremy Lin is officially done for the season. Our Real Plus/Minus-based power ratings made Dallas 9.5 point favorites at Staples Center this evening before this news broke.

As Lin did not exit the Laker lineup until after the last reset of our weekly RPM-based power ratings approach, we think his absence is not adequately accounted for in the numbers. If we are right, then the model forecast underestimates the Mavericks actual edge.

We approximate the impact of Lin's definitive absence by subtracting his average value per game (based on Lin's whole-season Real Plus/Minus) from our weekly RPM-based initial estimate of Lakers +9.5. We then add to our spread estimate the value of Lin's replacements.

Assuming Lin would have played his average number of minutes (a conservative estimate given the extent to which the Laker roster is depleted), his RPM of +1.14 is estimated to cost his team about 1 spread point per game (we also assume that the two involved teams tonight will each possess the ball an average number of times).

Further, Jabari Brown's whole season RPM of -4.25 suggests the Lakers give up another 4+ points of advantage per game, on average, if he picks up Lin's vacated playing time -- which has been the case recently.

As such, and in accordance with the signal given by our model, we are betting the road favorite here, and are looking for Dallas to beat even a gamey LA squad by a mid-teens margin.

Happy betting!!