Apr 12 NBA Action: Betting the Total on Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs
Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs o198.5
Our three-factor value model strongly favors the OVER when the Phoenix Suns travel to AT&T Center to do battle with the defending champion San Antonio Spurs this evening. Our composite indicator, which is based on two independent simulation routines and a quantitative factor, anticipates a total in the ballpark of 210, versus the current O/U line 199.5. The forecasts from the individual model inputs are fairly tightly clustered in a five point range (208-213).
San Antonio has scored more than 100 points in each of their last six games, and in eight of their last ten out. We see no reason to anticipate a deceleration against the Suns' slightly below average D (TeamRankings pits Phoenix 16th by overall defensive efficiency).
Further, both the Suns and Spurs favor pace. Phoenix averages almost three possessions more per game than the typical NBA team, while the Spurs too are more inclined than the average club to push the ball. Perhaps counterintuitively, the Suns average number of possessions actually increases when they play away from Talking Stick Resort Arena. This stat is likewise higher for San Antonio on their own home floor. As such, we anticipate a brisk pace throughout this contest.
Phoenix has posted some lowly offensive numbers recently (75 @ New Orleans, 69 @ Atlanta and 87 vs Utah), however, these sub-par figures came against slow-paced teams (Utah ranks 30th by possessions per game, New Orleans is 28th and Atlanta is 19th). Thus, aside from putting out hearty defensive efforts, the clock-chewing style of these offenses naturally reduce the time opposing teams have to score the basketball.
Given the up-and-down propensities of both the Suns and Spurs, we expect more of a run-and-gun contest than a defensive clinic this evening.
Our three-factor model is a profitable 35-25 (for a 58.3% win rate) when the implied value proposition is greater than seven points -- implied value for this contest falls in the double digits.