Toronto Raptors -5.5 @ Orlando Magic
Our Real Plus/Minus-based power ratings give the Raptors about a 4-point edge when they take on the Magic at Amway Center in Orlando this evening. However, this figure likely expects Toronto’s starting Point Gard, Kyle Lowry, to miss tonight’s action. Lowry has been sidelined for the last seven games due to back pain, but was recently upgraded to probable for Friday’s contest.
By our math, assuming Lowry is restricted to 20 minutes tonight (his average is about 35 MPG in the 66 matchups where he has seen action), whole season RPM’s from ESPN imply that Toronto’s favor increases by roughly 6 points to about 10 (we assume Greivis Vasquez plays 20 minutes less, and that combined possessions tonight will approximate Toronto’s average number of possessions on the road plus Orlando’s average at home).
As such, we are happy to lay reasonable chalk in support of an intact Raptors squad, facing a bad home team (this year the Magic are 13-26 in their building straight up, and 15-23-1 versus the number).
Happy betting!!