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Apr 9 NBA Action: Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors


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Golden State Warriors -10.0 vs Portland Trail Blazers

The top-seeded Golden State Warriors will host the Portland Trail Blazers at Oracle Arena this evening. In spite of boasting the best record in the league (by a comfortable margin), the Warriors have dropped their last two games both straight up and versus the number.

Golden State has equaled their current losing streak on three occasions this season. Interestingly though, two games seems to be the magic number for triggering a wake-up call for the Warriors -- Golden State has not dropped three straight all year long.

Also of note, after losing two in a row, the Warriors have always been favored by double digits in the ensuing game. Unfortunately for Warriors backers though, Golden State is a meager 1-2 against-the-spread from this position.

Portland will enter tonight's matchup as winners of seven of their last ten straight-up (5-5 ATS). The Rip City crew has struggled of late though versus upper eschelon teams (Portland's last four losses were dealt by the Nets -- the Blazers were shorthanded here though, the Clippers, the Warriors and the Grizzlies).

Additionally, as the underdog, Portland has not done well versus the number this year. The Blazers are only 11-11 when receiving points. Further, as big dogs (i.e. when the spread is +5 or more), the Blazers are a dismal 2-4.

Our Real Plus/Minus based power ratings expect the Warriors to cover, winning by about 11. Our regression model corroborates this forecast.

Based on both our assessment of the numbers as well as betting trends, we are looking for Golden State to bounce back at Oracle this evening (where the Dubs are a formidable 25-11-1 versus the number) against an, at best, mediocre road team (Portland is 18-20 ATS away from the Moda Center).

Happy betting!!

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